- Retail sales of new energy vehicles in China are expected to surge back above the 900,000-unit mark in March, marking a sharp rebound from February’s holiday-driven slump, according to preliminary industry data.
The China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) projects March NEV retail sales to reach approximately 900,000 units, representing a month-on-month increase of nearly 94% from the 464,000 units recorded in February.
February’s weak performance was largely attributed to an extended Chinese New Year holiday from February 15 to 23, along with the phase-out of certain NEV support policies as the country transitioned into 2026.
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Electric Vehicle Share Set to Cross 50% Threshold
Based on CPCA estimates, total passenger car retail sales are expected to reach around 1.7 million units in March, up 64.5% from February. This would bring the NEV penetration rate to 52.9%, recovering above the 50% level after falling to 44.9% in February.
The table below summarizes China’s monthly NEV retail sales trends from 2024 through the current forecast period:
| Period | NEV Retail Sales | Month-on-Month Change | Penetration Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2026 | 720,000 | -3.4% | 50.2% |
| Feb 2026 | 464,000 | -35.6% | 44.9% |
| Mar 2026 (est.) | 900,000 | +94.0% | 52.9% |
Source: China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), compiled by CnEVPost
Factors Driving the March Rebound
Several factors are contributing to the anticipated market recovery:
- Trade-in subsidy clarity — Detailed implementation rules for vehicle trade-in subsidies are being rolled out across provinces in mid-to-late March, easing consumer uncertainty.
- New model launches — A wave of new NEV models hitting the market ahead of spring auto shows is stimulating consumer interest.
- Quarter-end sales push — Automakers are intensifying promotional efforts to meet first-quarter sales targets.
Weekly sales data shows the market gained momentum after a slow start to March. Daily average retail sales are projected to reach 93,000 units by the end of the month, according to CPCA tracking.
Automaker Performance Snapshot
In the broader passenger car market for February, Geely led with a 14.1% market share, followed by BYD at 8.6%. The rankings reflect continued competitive intensity as traditional automakers and EV-focused brands vie for market position in China’s rapidly evolving automotive landscape.
The March rebound, if realized, would signal renewed consumer confidence in the NEV segment following a period of policy adjustment and seasonal disruption.
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