China’s passenger new energy vehicle (NEV) wholesale sales for January 2026 saw a minimal year-on-year increase but a sharp sequential decline, according to the latest estimates from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).
The data indicates that January sales reached approximately 900,000 units, marking a 1% increase compared to January 2025. However, this figure represents a significant 42.42% drop from the 1,563,000 units sold in December 2025. A primary driver for this steep month-on-month decline was the front-loading of consumer demand into December, ahead of the expiration of the national NEV purchase tax exemption policy.
Top-Performing Automakers in January 2026
Leading automakers dominated the sales landscape in January. The following table lists the major players with their estimated wholesale sales figures:
| Automaker | NEV Wholesale Sales (Units) |
|---|---|
| BYD | 205,518 |
| Geely Auto | 124,525 |
| Tesla China | 69,129 |
| Chery | 47,895 |
| Seres | 40,012 |
| Xiaomi EV | 39,000 |
| Leapmotor | 32,059 |
| Dongfeng | 29,975 |
| Changan | 29,868 |
| SAIC-GM-Wuling | 28,661 |
Key Market Drivers and Outlook
- Policy Shift Impact: Entering 2026, the automotive market is navigating a transitional phase. The full exemption from the 10% vehicle purchase tax for NEVs has ended, meaning consumers now pay a 5% tax. Additionally, the previous round of national vehicle trade-in subsidies has expired, with new schemes not yet fully implemented across the country. These changes have temporarily dampened consumer demand following the December rush.
- Sales Structure Projection: The CPCA’s estimate is partly based on the performance of major manufacturers. In December, automakers with wholesale sales exceeding 10,000 units contributed 93% of the total NEV sales. The projected January sales for this group are around 830,000 units, forming the basis for the overall 900,000-unit market estimate.
- Notable Performer – Tesla: Tesla China’s sales of 69,129 units in January present a mixed picture: a 9.32% year-on-year increase contrasted with a 28.86% month-on-month decrease, aligning with the broader market trend.
In summary, China’s NEV market began 2026 with a predictable seasonal cooldown after a policy-driven surge at the end of 2025. While year-on-year growth remains slightly positive, the immediate focus is on how demand recovers as the market adjusts to the new policy environment in the coming months.
I hope this report is helpful for your analysis. Would you be interested in a similar breakdown for the retail sales data when it is released later this month?
